UK

The Rogue Prorogation and the English-Scottish judicial divide

As the pressures and contradictions of no-deal Brexit pressure threaten the unity of the United Kigdom, further fissures are to be seen through the prisms of judical reasoning, in which English and Scottish judges view and interpet the world in utterly divergent ways.

The English High Court has curtly dismissed the claim that the Prime Minister’s decision to seek prorogation of Parliament.  By contrast, the Scottish Court of Session (hearing the case on appeal) has held that the advice was for an improper purpose and so unlawful. Both decisions are the subject of appeal to the UK Supreme Court, to be heard on 17th September.

Rethinking Britain – How to build a better future

 Published this month by Policy Press in partnership with PRIME and the Progressive Economic Forum (PEF), Rethinking Britain is not only for the many – it’s also written by the many. As a result, it doesn’t set out the vision of one or two people, but instead offers the assessment of a wide range of experts, who are working in or studying the areas we cover. We not only set out the problems and suggest policy solutions to address them.  Our aim is to help improve life for people living in today’s Britain.

From Hammond on to Johnson - where next for fiscal policy?

As Mr Johnson takes over as Leader of the Conservative Hard Brexit Cult, and by virtue thereof as Prime Minister, it is timely to take a quick look at what his economic and fiscal policy options are - at least in the lead up to DD-Day (Do or Die) on 31st October. It’s equally important to take stock of Mr Hammond’s record as he quietly fades away after three years as Chancellor of the Exchequer.

UK economy 2010-2018 - the devastating impact of the age of austerity

While updating our data for GDP per head of population from OECD and ONS, and doing some quick calculations, I realised a startling fact. The present age of austerity, starting with the 2010 Coalition government, and on to the Cameron / May Conservative governments, has to date been the worst since records began for average annual change in GDP per head. And if we exclude years of recession, it has been by far the worst.

Why the left must now unite against Brexit

Although Theresa May has survived to fight another day as Prime Minister, the of her Brexit deal in parliament has blown the debate wide open. The Prime Minister has called on MPs to "put self-interest aside" and "work constructively together" to find a way forward. In this context, the Labour Party’s next steps are critical.

The debate about Lexit is now irrelevant. The only form of Brexit that is possible is one that will entrench the status quo or empower something far worse. The left must unite against it.

To Secure a Future, Britain Needs a Green New Deal

This is an extract from a chapter in Economics For the Many (Verso, 2018) edited by Rt. Hon. John McDonnell MP. The chapter was written in August, 2017. 

If we are to secure a sustainable, stable and liveable future for the people of Britain, then implementation of the Green New Deal will be vital. Not just for the sake of the ecosystem, but also for the sake of rebuilding a stable, sustainable economy. A sustainable economy will be one dominated by a “Carbon Army’ of skilled, well-paid workers.

Brexit Agreement: a bad deal, a worse Protocol - time to consult the people!

The main body of the draft Withdrawal Agreement is certainly long and detailed – a tribute to the efficiency of the EU’s legal services – but it mainly contains the sort of provisions one would expect for the terms of the separation, and for issues that straddle the departure timeline. 

But as for the so-called Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol, that’s another matter altogether. It’s not a backstop for Northern Ireland, but an up-front set of binding rules for the UK as a whole.

Budget Special: To tackle austerity, Britain needs (at least) a £50 billion increase in public spending

It’s budget time. Austerity has severely damaged Britain’s physical and social infrastructure. Coupled with a fall in real wages, austerity has shrunk Britain’s social wage. No wonder British voters are angry and disillusioned. So let’s examine the case for a £50 billion spend. For the NHS, local government, central government services, and unfreezing benefits…

It can be done within the levels of expenditure considered acceptable during the Thatcher era. All it takes is political will – and the overturning of the ‘Treasury View’.

What Question(s) for a "People's Vote" Referendum?

The calls for a “People’s Vote” on the government’s proposed Brexit ‘deal’ (if indeed there is one) grow louder, but are especially contentious for the Labour Party, whose membership is more minded to “remain” than the public at large, which still seems fairly evenly split.

But the call for a People’s Vote is not so straightforward, partly now in terms of timing and Parliamentary arithmetic, but above all since it poses the tough question – what question to ask the People to vote on? Or indeed what questions, plural?

What Is Wrong with the Bank of England's Decision Today?

What Is Wrong with the Bank of England's Decision Today?

The BoE’s decision to raise the Bank Rate to 0.75% is a mistake. It is a mistake comparable to those made by Alan Greenspan’s Federal Reserve in the years between 2003 and 2006. 

It's simple: [Great Crash]+[Tory austerity] = productivity decline

For the last several years the media have carried reports of a crisis of low productivity plaguing the British economy, both in terms of level and rate of change.  Almost two years ago, PRIME's Jeremy Smith provided what I considered the definitive refutation of the existence of such a crisis.  But, far from ending, the “crisis” discussion has gathered pace to become a recurrent media theme. 

IPPR's UK Industrial Strategy: focus on demand, not just supply

The British economy is simply not performing the way we need it to. As the Interim Report of the IPPR Commission on Economic Justice shows,  the UK has the weakest performance on investment, productivity, trade and geographical imbalances of any major European economy.

It must be about more than the ‘supply side’. There’s little point improving the conditions for investment when demand is so weak. Since the financial crisis private sector investment has flatlined. There’s a vital need for Government to increase public investment to pick up the slack. In our report we call for an injection of £20bn in additional annual public investment spending by 2020-2, or 1% of GDP. This would take net public investment to 3% of GDP, its OECD average.

 

Those who helped break the economy cannot fix it 

Yesterday’s increase in interest rates was a big deal. Painful as it might be for many, the real point is that the Bank is signalling the end of a particular phase of monetary policy. 

Since 2010 the counterpart to self-defeating austerity policies has been expansionary monetary policies. These have inflated assets - enriching the already-rich, while failing to stimulate wider economic recovery. Yesterday the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee signalled an end of this dangerous game. 

But this technocratic realignment makes no difference to the fact that Bank and Treasury economists have failed to revive the economy.

The deficit & the IFS: a black hole between a rock and a hard place?

In its latest true-to-form report, “Between a rock and a hard place”, the IFS discovers to its horror that the Tory Chancellor badly missed his borrowing target and is unlikely to balance the central government’s budget. Apparently gobsmacked by the report, the Guardian reproduced many of the IFS charts, sounding the alarm of a “new budget black hole”, its default moniker for a fiscal deficit

Time for a paradigm shift?

The orthodox approach has not prescribed economic policies which have been able to deal with the multiple problems we now face. We desperately need a new approach - both to economic analysis and to policy. You could say, indeed, that we need a new paradigm.

This is the conclusion reached by the Interim Report of the IPPR Commission on Economic Justice, published last month. ‘Time for Change: A New Vision for the British Economy’* argues that the structural problems of the UK economy are so deep that ‘fundamental reform’ of economic thinking and policy is needed. Such reform needs to be of the magnitude of the two economic paradigm shifts of the 20th century.

The best UK/EU transition plan? If we can, extend the Article 50 period

On 30th June 2016, just one week after the EU Referendum, I wrote this:

It has swiftly become clear, if it were not already so, that neither the government nor the leaders of the Brexit campaigns had anything resembling a plan for what to do if the people voted in favour of leaving the EU. 

Alas, over a year later, there is still no plan – and awareness that the Conservative government has simply dumped us here without any idea what to do next is becoming overwhelming.

So we badly need a transitional deal - but what kind?