Although Theresa May has survived to fight another day as Prime Minister, the of her Brexit deal in parliament has blown the debate wide open. The Prime Minister has called on MPs to "put self-interest aside" and "work constructively together" to find a way forward. In this context, the Labour Party’s next steps are critical.
The debate about Lexit is now irrelevant. The only form of Brexit that is possible is one that will entrench the status quo or empower something far worse. The left must unite against it.
It’s budget time. Austerity has severely damaged Britain’s physical and social infrastructure. Coupled with a fall in real wages, austerity has shrunk Britain’s social wage. No wonder British voters are angry and disillusioned. So let’s examine the case for a £50 billion spend. For the NHS, local government, central government services, and unfreezing benefits…
It can be done within the levels of expenditure considered acceptable during the Thatcher era. All it takes is political will – and the overturning of the ‘Treasury View’.
The calls for a “People’s Vote” on the government’s proposed Brexit ‘deal’ (if indeed there is one) grow louder, but are especially contentious for the Labour Party, whose membership is more minded to “remain” than the public at large, which still seems fairly evenly split.
But the call for a People’s Vote is not so straightforward, partly now in terms of timing and Parliamentary arithmetic, but above all since it poses the tough question – what question to ask the People to vote on? Or indeed what questions, plural?
Ten years ago the bursting of private debt ‘bubbles’ – most obviously in the US, UK and on the periphery of the EU – woke policymakers to the importance of balance sheet dynamics. Today, commentary by international organisations has ongoing rises in private debt as a key risk to global outcomes.
Over the past decade in advanced western economies, the rate of improvement in prosperity has ground to the lowest point of the post-war period.
It is argued in this article that productivity has been the result of aggregate demand rather than supply conditions. And that the strength of demand follows global monetary conditions that are the result of deliberate policy interventions.
If UK voters decide to leave the European Union, it will be for one reason above all. From the outset, nationalism bordering on xenophobia has been a defining feature of the Leave campaign. Having lost the argument on broader economic issues, it looks likely the Leave camp will fight the final month of the campaign on immigration.
The scapegoating of migrants for the UK’s economic problems will become increasingly unrestrained as the referendum date approaches.
The ONS first estimate for GDP in the 1st Quarter of 2014 is an increase of 0.8% over Q4 of 2013. That seems on the surface a reasonable rate of progression, though on a closer look it remains rather unbalanced.
With China's credit crunch hitting the financial headlines today, it is a good time to look at some of the issues and concerns that are really driving China's political leadership. Right at the top is that of urbanization, in all its aspects and complexity. It is at once an economic, social, demographic and political issue. The scale of the challenge is almost unimaginable to non-Chinese, and awe-inspiring to those of us who have at least had a modest first-hand introduction to the subject. See here for a recent piece in the New York Times on the subject. And this from a recent Nomura note, cited in Financial Times Alphaville (20th June), see here (and also here):